Iac-11.d3.4.3 Evaluating Research for Disruptive Innovation in the Space Sector

Many governmental space activities need to be planned with a time horizon that extends beyond the comfort zone of reliable technology development assessments and predictions. In an environment of accelerating technological change, a methodological approach to non-core technology trends and potentially disruptive, game-changing developments not yet linked to the space sector is increasingly important to complement efforts in core technology R&D planning. Different models and organisational setups for that purpose exist. These include, with varying links to space, the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC, operational form 1998 to 2007 and recently re-established), the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency of the US Department of Defence, the MIT Medialab, the early versions of Starlab, the Lockheed Skunk Works and ESAs Advanced Concepts Team. Some of these organisations have been reviewed and assessed individually, though systematic comparison of their methods, approaches and results have not been published. This might be related to the relatively sparse scientific literature on organisational parameters for organising disruptive innovation as well as to the lack of commonly agreed performance indicators for these. Innovation support systems in the space sector are furthermore organised differently than in traditional, open competitive markets, which serve as the basis for most scholarly literature on the organisation of innovation. The present paper intends to advance and to stimulate a discussion on the organisation of disruptive innovation mechanisms specifically for the space sector. It therefore uses the examples of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts and the ESA Advanced Concepts Team to analyse their respective approaches and compare results, leading to some proposed measures for the analysis and eventually evaluation of research for disruptive innovation in the space sector.